A five-year forecast by Moody’s Analytics shows prices rising all over the country apart from in two cities. Moody’s forecast used RPS Real Property Solutions data and predicted that Canadian home prices will go up by 2.2% between the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2024.
National home sales climbed in April 2019 according to statistics given by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This is promising considering that sales were at a seven-year low in April of 2018. Toronto experienced the biggest increase in house sales, rising by 11%. The Canadian housing market seems to be on the rebound. However, increased property sales do not necessarily mean that properties will become more affordable.
House price appreciation to slow down
Monetary tightening is affecting house price appreciation. Andres Carbacho-Burgos, the leading housing economist at Moody’s, reports that house price appreciation will slow down in 2020. In 2021 it will turn negative for a brief period, and then it will recover over the next few years.
Top five cities with the highest price increases
According to Moody Analytic’s forecast, St. John’s prices will climb by 6.1% and Guelph’s prices will rise to 5.5%. These are the highest jumps and they are followed by Barrie at 5.2%, Edmonton at 4.2$ and Toronto at 3.3% to make up the top five cities whose prices will increase the most.
Moderate price appreciation for Montréal
Carbacho-Burgos reports that this year, Montréal alone will have an average house price appreciation of 2.6% when compared with some of the other big metro areas. However, a partial recovery will come in the next few years with Toronto doing a little better.
High demand will continue in Toronto but will be reigned in
Toronto will still experience high demand. However, mortgage stress tests and rising interest rates will negatively affect the affordability of homes for some buyers which will reign in purchase demand.
House prices to dip in Vancouver
Vancouver will see house prices dropping over the next year. Vancouver is currently experiencing a buyers’ market. Apartment and house prices are overvalued and it may be challenging to maintain prices through 2024. According to the Moody’s forecast, it will only see a 0.9% rise over the next five years.
Buyers in Vancouver are adjusting to a mix of reduced access to financing and housing affordability challenges. The provincial government of British Columbia has made changes to housing policies and mortgage stress tests.
Which cities will dip in prices?
The two Canadian cities that will experience a dip in prices over the next five years are Saskatoon and Regina. Serious house price corrections are in store due to overvalued house prices. These cities also have a history of mean-reversion, unlike the Ontario metro areas.
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